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Making a case for Manny to the Reds

2009-01-12T18:05:00.000-08:00

First let me preface this by saying that I am not an overzealous Cincinnati Reds fan, and just like any other professional sports team there are many. I grew up in northern Ohio and my heart still lies with the Indians. I do live in Cincinnati and am a baseball fan in any form I can get it so I am more than familiar with the Reds. What I am about to suggest will probably make anyone not believe a word of the preceding 3 sentences, the Cincinnati Reds should make a move to sign Manny Ramirez.

The first obstacle to my suggestion would appear to be money. The Cincinnati Reds are a small market team and typically been in the bottom half of Major League Baseball in payroll. They’re most recent attempt at bringing in a super-star player from outside their organization, Ken Griffey Jr. was considered mostly a failure. Taking a cue from the Griffey experience, the Reds shouldn’t stay away from star free agents all together but rather pick and choose from situations like the one Manny is currently in. It appears Manny has limited options in terms of suitors and could best be served taking a one year deal in order to rehabilitate his image and return to the market next season. A one-year deal wouldn’t leave the Reds exposed in the way they were with the Griffey deal.

The money should be available to the Reds as well. The previous mentioned contract for Ken Griffey Jr. is no longer on the books along with the contract for fellow 2008 opening day outfielder Adam Dunn. Together their 2008 salaries accounted for $21,282,695, more than enough to make an offer in this market. Again this only makes sense if it’s a short-term deal so to keep flexibility for the Reds to lock up their core of young players in the future. Having not heard of any deal that were significantly more appealing a one year deal at $18 million with a player option for 2010 would at the very least make Scott Boras listen just to have a bargaining chip with the Dodgers.

One may ask the question, “Why do the Reds need Manny Ramirez?” From a pure roster numbers perspective they don’t, the outfield is projected to be Chris Dickerson in left, Willy Taveras in center, and Jay Bruce in right. Bruce and Taveras are set in their respective positions for 2009 but is Dickerson the answer in left? He had an impressive stretch at the end of the season, but can he be expected to continue a production line of .304/.413/.608 when he had never even done that in the minors? Prior to last September, Dickerson was seen mostly as more of an athlete than an everyday player who would probably wind up as a fringe starter. The September numbers mask an inability to hit lefthanders and a lack of power for a corner outfielder. Plus at 27 years old this can probably be assumed to be his peak or close to it. Based on Bill James’ rate projections and an estimate that he’ll reach 526 plate appearances Dickerson could be expected to produce around 0.5 wins in 2009. If this is anywhere close to the actual production the Reds receive from their leftfielder they would be best served

Manny Ramirez on the other hand is a proven star caliber player. Last year in his first action in the National League he arguably put up equivalent number to those he put up earlier in the season with the Red Sox but in less than half the plate appearances. His total 2008 value in wins was approximately 10.8 and has put up numbers that equate to more than 5 wins every year since 1994. The bigger question though may be will it even make a difference?

The Reds finished 74-88 in 2008, good enough for fifth in the National League Central Division. That record also included over half a season each from Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn who combined to produce approximately 7.5 wins combined. While the additions of Willy Taveras and Ramon Hernandez should replace some of the lost value it leaves them no where near a playoff berth. According to a 2009 projection run by Replacement Level Yankees Weblog based on rosters as of January 8, 2009 and projections from the Hardball Times the Reds could be expected to finish slightly better in 2009 at 79-83. Averaging Manny’s stats over the last three years and taking into account a performance level of 80% to account for regression would come out to about 6 wins produced in 2009 putting the Reds record at 85-77. Comparing this to other records in the projection doesn’t quite get the Reds in the playoffs yet but puts them in position (2nd in the NL Central and 2nd in the NL Wildcard). As we’ve seen in the past couple seasons as long as a team puts itself in a position to contend for the postseason anything can happen.

While its unlikely that the Reds ownership group will approve such a contract in this economy the signing could reap more than it cost. If the Reds were to make the playoffs then much of the cost of Manny could be recouped by increased ticket sales leading up to the postseason and the gate receipts from the playoff games themselves. It would also give another veteran Latin presence to a team that has several young Latin players and even though his antics have been criticized as of late, Manny’s loose attitude was looked upon favorably as the Red Sox won the title in 2004.

Deshawn Stevenson is a Punk Bitch!

2008-04-27T11:05:00.000-07:00

Enough Said.

In case you need more evidence against Mr. Fifty, who needs to show people his Black Card to prove he is important enough to own one, here is his line for the playoffs vs one overrated player.

Game 1
Deshawn 38 mins 3 pts (1/9 shooting) 1 reb 5 ast 1 stl 0 blk
LeBron 41 mins 32 pts (12/19 shooting) 6 reb 4 ast 1 stl 2 blk

Game 2
Deshawn 26 mins 12 pts (4/7 shooting) 0 reb 2 ast 0 stl 0 blk
LeBron 39 mins 30 pts (9/19 shooting) 9 reb 12 ast 1 stl 2 blk

Game 3
Deshawn 29 mins 19 pts (5/9 shooting) 0 reb 1 ast 3 stl 0 blk
LeBron 36 mins 22 pts (10/19 shooting) 7 reb 3 ast 1 stl 1 blk

The Ultimate Issue With Sports Video Games

2008-03-09T15:57:00.000-07:00

I'm a sports fan. If you are reading this you are likely a sports fan as well. I also play video games, and judging by the fact that my post about Madden 2008 was the most popular post I've had on either one of my blogs most of you do two. The link between the two was quickly identified in the early 90's when video game publishers started getting licenses for player names and likenesses, and team names and likenesses. However, it seems that recently game publishers have not been putting their all into their sports offerings mostly because they don't have to in order to sell the product.

I'll admit I get as overexcited for certain sports games as everyone (see the Madden post. My enthusiasm lessened pretty much within the first month of owning the game which is severely flawed and is completely dull to play aside from playing friends online or in person.) but this is a major flaw of sports fans when it comes to gaming. We get so amped over certain games that we overlook quality in many occasions just because we now get to see what Brady Quinn looks like in a Browns uniform or see how Steve Nash's hair looks this year. We tend to treat these game franchises like they are our favorite sports franchises; undying loyalty, appreciating of small changes, and profound pride in their success.

I know many people who buy the newest copy of Madden or NBA 2K or MLB 2K and trumpet its greatness when in fact the game is a piece of crap. I got a phone call from a friend in December expressing the greatness of NBA Live 2008! NBA Freaking Live! The last time that game was worth paying for it was available for the Sega Genesis. No reasons were provided aside from the B.S. answer of "Dude, they have all of LeBron's tattoos," and "But at least the rosters are all up to date." I've gotten similar defenses for MLB 2K8 and NHL 2008 both of which were very disappointing when I got a chance to play them.

If all it takes is updated rosters and a new mini-game to appease all of these consumers (and there are a ton of us) then what is the motivation for publishers to make a major leap forward? Think about it, if you have a girlfriend who worships you and will do anything for you are you going to buy her flowers or take her out to an expensive dinner every month like you would have to do for the girl you had to convince to date you? No, so EA, 2K, and Sony aren't likely to wine and dine us either, we're too easy.

Another problem is the fact that a lot of gaming websites and gaming experts aren't big sports fans. These people expose crappy games in all of the other genres forcing game creators to bring quality products with new advancements to the table. But many of these people/sites just pass over sports games or give them unfavorable or half hearted reviews because they don't particularly like that sport. Baseball is major victim of this because the sports popularity has declined over the past decade, especially among the age groups that typically make up gamers. On Cheapassgamer.com's CAGcast (CAGcast #110, http://www.cheapassgamer.com/forums/showthread.php?t=174760, if you want to listen to it yourself) the two hosts breeze over the release of the newest MLB game. More time was spent talking about GTA IV which doesn't even come out for over a month. Why, because its much more anticipated and will be much better. Why is that, because if Rockstar put out a horrible GTA game they would be killed in the gaming community and lose much of the following they have built up over the years. If 2K puts out a bad MLB game, people will still buy it and even if it is recognized as being horrible it will have the old sports maxim of "Well they'll have another shot next year."

This is without bringing up the fact that Publishers are finding it easier to eliminate their competition than to actually compete with them. So the consumer is demanding a better product, and their is no competition to drive progress, how are we ever going to see major improvements in the area of sports gaming?

A prolonged Cringe for the Queen City

2007-10-21T11:05:00.000-07:00

Despite a busy, busy schedule that has prohibited me from writing for about a month, one recent piece of news has spurred all other responsibilities because it must be commented on by everyone, what a horrible hiring Dusty Baker was for the Cincinnati Reds. Just Awful.

I know Baker hasn't even managed his first game with the Reds yet and it is unfair to completely judge him before he does, but seriously looking at past performances and repercussions of Baker's work it looks like the worst move the Reds could possibly have made. While I often disagree with him, Keith Law hits the nail on the head in every angle on this hiring (If you have ESPN Insider read his take here http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=law_keith). Baker's weaknesses are his overuse and down right abuse of young pitchers and his lack of understanding of the modern offense, which are the two areas that are most important if the Reds are to succeed any time soon.

Baker's destruction of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior in Chicago is well documented, however what he did to Matt Clement (the exact same thing to Wood and Prior) is often overlooked. Clement was looking like a surefire 2nd or 3rd starter, something that any organization would love and Baker loaded huge workloads on the kid. Today Clement is an afterthought, but had he been nurtured by a better manager we could be talking about him being an important cog in Chicago's rotation for a decade or he could have landed a deal that would have put those of Jeff Supan's and Gil Meche's to shame.

Cincinnati has quite a few decent to great young arms coming up in the next year or two. Homer Baily has the chance to displace Aaron Harang as the Reds' ace. His Texan upbringing is similar to Kerry Wood's down to the heavy workloads he pitched in high school. Unless Baker learned his lesson Baily's future could be squabbled even quicker than Woods. Then there is Johnny Cueto, a good young arm who projects to be a 2nd or a borderline 1st starter. Cueto is a small pitcher, only 5'11" and 174 so if overworked he could experience a breakdown similar to what Pedro Martinez is going through now. Throw in Phil Dumatrait, Bill Bray (who already has arm trouble), Sam LeCure, Travis Wood, Darryle Thompson, and remember than Harang will only be 30 and Bronson Arroyo only 31, Baker could kill a pitching staff that could be the best in the division for the next 4 or 5 years.

Then there is Baker's ignorance when it comes to walks and On-base percentage. Here is what Baker said on the subject in a 2004 interview with MLB.com.

"I think walks are overrated unless you can run. If you get a walk and put the pitcher in a stretch, that helps, but the guy who walks and can't run, most of the time he's clogging up the bases for somebody who can run. ... Who have been the champions the last seven, eight years? Have you ever heard the Yankees talk about on-base percentage and walks?"

Actually Dusty, the Yankees are one of the best teams and getting on base, the led the league in the stat in 1997 and 1998 when they won 114 games. If Baker still holds this belief then that means that the underrated Adam Dunn (yes underrated and Adam Dunn belong in the same sentence) will probably be gone before his contract is up and that rookie first baseman Joey Votto will probably be on a short leash. Both players are slow-footed hitters who rely on the walk to get on base. Dunn's poor defense (which is completely made up for and more by his power) and Votto's lack of 30 HR power could spell the demise of each in Cincinnati and provide fantastic deals for whatever teams pick up the Reds' mistakes. Even Josh Hamilton, who has lost a step or two, could be at risk with Baker's free swinging philosophy since he will have to overcome his lost years with more patience at the plate if he ultimately wants to be successful.

Perhaps the only player who benefits from this move is Ryan Freel, who will certainly find his way into a slot under Baker with his speed, defense, and hustle. While Freel is a reasonable starter, his real value comes from being able to play every outfield position as well as 2nd and 3rd base. If Baker doesn't utilize this versatility and locks him into a position it will be a two-fold mistake, robbing a player like Encarnacion or frequent playing time and taking away a super-sub who can give players like Griffey, Hamilton, and Dunn much needed rest.

While Baker has a track record of winning he has never really done it with a team that is starting from scratch. The Cubs had their cupboard filled when Baker took over and were loaded with cash to spend on the market. Same thing goes with the Giants who had one of the game's all-time greats, Barry Bonds (steroids or no steroids the guy was amazing and had an impact on the league that no other player has had since Babe Ruth) on his roster. The Reds present a new situation for Baker, hopefully he has learned his lesson and can help this team deliver most of the potential it has.

Mid-Day College Football Rankings

2007-09-29T16:30:00.000-07:00

There should not be a NCAA Football poll until at least the 3rd week of the season. For me you don't get a good sense of teams until conference play starts up, which is right now. A few thoughts since we now can base teams off of this season's play and not last year's and other intangible indicators.
-The Big East is pretty good. They're like a poor man's SEC where all of the teams will beat each other up and prevent anyone from being a National Championship contender.
-The Big 12 is pretty bad. Until this afternoon I was going to write that the only elite team in that conference was Oklahoma, but they get beat by Colorado. Texas goes on to prove the other part of my argument as they were considered the 2nd best team in the conference and they get shellacked by Kansas St.
-Kentucky is overrated but their QB is underrated. They are not the #14 team in the country (The ranking was boosted by the win over Louisville who isn't as bad as they've shown in the last two weeks but obviously wasn't a Top-5 team). Andre Woodson though is a fantastic player who could work his way into the top pick in the NFL draft.
-If you are looking for a good game to watch, bank on a Pac-10 game. Aside from featuring great teams in USC, Cal, and Oregon, the play offensive play is electric and always fun to watch. Note: does not apply when a lower tier team (ie Washington) plays a team that features and ugly style of play (ie THE Ohio State University).

With those out of the way here is my Top-25

USC
LSU - I know there is some debate about who's 1 and who's 2 but watching the two teams play just I'm just more confident putting USC #1
Florida
Cal
West Virginia - Even with the loss. Pat White was out half the game and they lost on the road to a tough tough team in USF.
THE Ohio State University
Oklahoma
Wisconsin
Boston College
Clemson
Kentucky - Didn't I just say they weren't the 14th best team in the country? Just wait.
Oregon - They lost to Cal (#6 at the time) in a hard fought game. USC be scared.
South Carolina
Georgia
South Florida - They're for real, and they're one of 5 Big East teams that will appear on this list
Virginia Tech
Alabama
Cincinnati - The Offense! My God the Offense!
Nebraska - Alright they may be good. They'll beat Texas and could give Oklahoma fits if that is the match up for the Big-12 Championship.
Miami (FL) - Larry Coker is gone. All hail Randy Shannon.
Arizona State - A killer end of their schedule will derail this rank but enjoy it for now Sun Devils
Purdue
Texas - I guess I have to put them on this list, but easily the most overrated team this year...
Michigan - Oh wait I forgot, these guys were ranked #3 at the beginning of the year. They're better than the 0-2 team but hold the presses on the last 3 games, they haven't been beating great teams.
Tie - Michigan State and Louisville and Rutgers - (MSU)Even with today's loss to Wisconsin (LOU) they just have a fantastic offense and will beat one of the other top teams in the Big East (RUT) Because I said there are 5 teams in here from the Big East.

Why aren't Hawaii and Penn State included? Well Hawaii will not be challenged by a good team this year (the toughest game on the schedule is Boise St). Penn State just lost 2 in a row so their out.

LenDale White is FAT!!!!!

2007-09-24T18:07:00.000-07:00

I hope you all have the ability to see his massive gut in HD because it is something to marvel at. Seriously, I thought O-linemen couldn't be the first to touch a ball in play. Anyway while searching for a picture during a commercial break of Monday Night Football, I came across this. Click and enjoy...

http://loserswithsocks.com/2007/03/30/a-day-in-the-life-of-lendale-white/

The Great Debate: A hit vs. a walk

2007-09-23T15:35:00.000-07:00

Within the last decade, presumably with the publishing of Moneyball, there has been a debate among baseball fans and even some executives about the importance of statistics. At the center of the debate usually lies an argument of batting average versus on-base percentage versus slugging percentage. Today the acceptance of slugging percentage is for the most part universally accepted, because it is clear to everyone that a player who hits for extra-bases at a certain average is more valuable than a player who hits only singles at that same average.

However, the dispute is still going as fiercely as ever when talking about OBP and AVG. Fans have chosen to be “old-school” or “new-school” depending on their preference of hitting for average or the ability of reaching base by any method respectively. The main difference between the two stats comes down to the importance of walks in the game (sacrifices play a role too but that opens up another big discussion). Unlike many of these types of furious emotional debates, this one does have a correct side. On-base percentage is a more telling statistic of a player’s and team’s success than batting average and studies have been done to come up with this answer (Most of these studies and statistics were created in order to determine the best statistics to evaluate players, not as a way to prove that those statistics are the best. i.e. they were done with an open mind). I don’t have the numbers and information readily available but basically it can be summarized by this. Games are won by scoring more runs than your opponent, which can be broken down into two areas, on offense scoring as many runs as possible and on defense allowing as few runs as possible through pitching and defense. Runs are scored by getting on-base and pitchers prevent runs by keeping players off the bases. Remember even the best homerun hitters only average one homerun every 3 to 4 games, so teams need to count on more than just the long ball to score. That being said, a player who gets 35 hits and no walks in 100 plate appearances (a .350 AVG, pretty good) in less valuable than a player who gets 27 hits and walks an additional 10 times in 100 plate appearances (a mediocre .270 AVG, but a .370 OBP).

There are other factors that go into the performance of a player. As mentioned earlier SLG is another important factor, but it has been given much more importance than OBP. This is probably due to fact that it is easier to see the impact of extra-base hits. The impact walks make are much more subtle but even more important. Walks are far from the lazy way to reach base that some people make them out to be. That outcome of the battle between pitcher and batter almost always favors the hitter (the record for OBP in a single season is .609 by Barry Bonds in 2004, but the league average in 2007 was around .330) so whenever and however a batter reaches base it is a victory. The difference between making an out and getting on base is much larger than the difference between reaching first base by walk or hit and getting a triple or double. That is, if a player has a 3-1 count and chases a pitch just outside the strike zone, the reward of a possible double or triple is less than the risk that it will be an out.

Another aspect that needs to be taken into account is the rate at which balls that are in play (any fair ball hit other than a homerun) become hits. For the most part, this is a pretty standard for all players over the course of their careers. Of course line drive hitters will have a better Batting Average of Balls In-Play than a weak utility infielder who specializes in dribblers to the shortstop, but typically BABIP comes out to .290¹.

Another aspect is the increase in pitch count to the opposing pitcher. No matter what a walk means four pitches were thrown and pretty significant amount for a plate appearance and usually it means 5 or 6 pitches were thrown. Even if the plate appearance doesn’t result in a walk, having a good eye and working the count runs up pitch totals and as everyone knows if a team can get deep into an opponent’s bullpen, the pitchers they will face will not be of the same quality and there will be more opportunities to score runs.

No one is saying that walks are the most important aspect to judging a hitter or that they are more valuable than an extra-base hit, they aren’t, but they are far to important to be over looked.

1. Baseball Prospectus: A typical BABIP is about .290

Wait this is better.

2007-09-10T20:00:00.000-07:00

This picture definitely exemplifies what I felt as a Browns fan on Sunday.

So Many Things Are Wrong

2007-09-09T12:59:00.000-07:00

The game is not over yet so there maybe more to add to this list but the Browns have so many problems. Granted the fact that they are being beat 34-7 shows that the Steelers are pretty good but the fact that they are being beaten 34-7 is well... ugh. Here is the list of what I've seen wrong.

-The supposedly revamped offensive line, I was one who thought it might even be a strength, looks as pathetic as ever. The run blocking is non-existent and the pass protection gives maybe 2 seconds at most...

-And you need superior pass protection when your QB's are throwing the football like monkeys flinging poo. Overthrows, underthrows, passes into coverage. Honestly when will Brady Quinn save us from this crapfest.

-The receiving corp didn't do anything to help the QB's. Braylon Edwards continued his dropping ways and Tim Carter hasn't worked on his hands since leaving NY. It looked like there was no communication between the QB's and the WR's as well. I'm not sure if it was the receivers running the wrong routes or the QB's throwing to the wrong pattern but it was ugly. Regardless of who's wrong someone has to step up and work something out.

-The Running Game, to quote the Talking Heads: Same as it ever was. Same as it ever was? Same as it ever was.

-We draft our corners out of kindergarten they are so undersized. Davin Holly, Leigh Bodden, and Eric Wright as were abused by Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, and Heath Miller.

-While Big Ted Washington is huge he cannot occupy the entire offensive line and what is left is two DE's who should be either backups or on the practice squad and a fat man in the middle.

-The Head coach who probably used a Quizie board to make the QB substitution. And honestly I'd be more comfortable with that explanation than if he actually made a decision by himself.

One bright spot, Kellen Winslow II (I like typing the II it brings a smile to my face. My only hope is that he has a kid and names it Kellen Winslow one after Jr.) looked like a very good TE. Unless he is double teamed I would target him on every single pass play. He can make the catches from the wobbly ducks that are thrown at him plus its a short pass so I'd be cool with Joshua Cribbs throwing to him. And that is ignoring all of the legitimate reasons like the fact he is much faster than most LB's and much much bigger than CB's.

And so like most of the Cleveland Browns seasons I begin wondering "Who are the best prospects for next year's draft?"

Definition of Sleepers

2007-09-05T15:55:00.000-07:00

In the world of fantasy, the word sleeper is thrown around more than any other term and every where you look someone is touting their respective lists that will help you win your league. Initially a sleeper could be thought of as an unknown quantity that would make an impact on your league, but that has to be thrown out because with all the attention today’s “sleepers” get they are far from unknown.

Eric Karabell of ESPN addressed this at the beginning of his blog post on Friday. His definition is someone who exceeds expectations. While this is part of the equation it is way too simple to fully describe what a sleeper is. Karabell even suggests that if LaDainian Tomlinson exceeds what is expected of him even while he is drafted number 1 he could in fact be a sleeper. Eh no. Someone who is drafted first cannot be considered a sleeper in any circumstance, because they were expected to be the best player no matter how many points that means.

Regardless of the Tomlinson statement, what Karabell was getting at was value. Value determines whether players are considered sleepers or busts. Last year Mike Bell was being hailed as a sleeper when he was getting love during the preseason. But he ended up getting so much attention that he became over-valued and any sort of sleeper status was stripped. On the other side, Maurice Jones-Drew received very little attention early but put up big numbers during the season. Yes MoJo would have still been a surprise had he gotten the attention that Bell received but his sleeper status came from the fact he was a late round or even un-drafted player and scored way more points than what could be expected from players in those situations. A less conventional sleeper, but one nonetheless would be Steven Jackson, who while being drafted in the late first round performed as a top-3 pick rewarding his owners immensely.

With all of that being said, no "sleeper" is without risk. Players with upside and no risk are drafted in the first 3 rounds of the draft, so when drafting, don't overload your team with sleepers.

Links:

Eric Karabell’s blog article. You need to have ESPN Insider to view, and sorry I’m not going to give it to you for free because I don’t know the legal ramifications and also it’s a service that is totally worth subscribing to.

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/karabell/index?entryID=2998945&name=karabell_eric&univLogin02=stateChanged

Holy Pennant Races Batman!

2007-08-26T10:32:00.000-07:00

After moving last week I was disconnected from the sports world by not having TV or the internet for about 10 days aside from the bits I picked up in newspapers and what was on in the bars I enjoyed several adult beverages in. I get back in touch yesterday and what do I see, pennant races galore. Four of the six races are within three games and the other two, the AL and NL East divisions, have their own sources of drama.

Living in Cincinnati, one thing that caught my eye was the resurgence of the Reds. As of Sunday 8/26 morning the Redlegs were only 7.5 games out of first place in the NL Central and about to begin a four game set with the woeful Pirates. While highly unlikely, the Reds are within sight of making the NL Central race a four team race. In the next six weeks the Reds have 2 series apiece with the three teams ahead of them in the division, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, and St. Louis Cardinals. It is very unlikely but the opportunities are there and for anyone who followed the team earlier in the year.

Some statistics to give Reds' fans hope:

Over Aaron Harang's last 15 starts, Cincinnati is 14-1
Cincinnati has the best record of all of the teams in the NL Central since firing Jerry Narron and hiring Pete Mackanin on July 3 (27-19).
Over the last four games the bullpen has only given up 2 runs over 17 2/3 innings (1.02 ERA).

Links:
http://www.daytondailynews.com/s/content/oh/story/sports/pro/reds/2007/08/24/ddn082507redsweb.html

3 days 'til Madden

2007-08-11T15:09:00.001-07:00

Three days until Madden 2008, and only two of them are working days (that detail is important because sitting on my ass all day Sunday where they only thing close to a productive activity will be either going to the grocery store or ordering food doesn't really seem like an obstacle). I have legitimately not been this excited for a version of Madden probably since the 2003 edition, which was the first year I owned a PS2 at the time of a Madden release (In what will probably be the second of a quite a few parenthetical notes I used a travelers check that my parents gave me for a trip to California to buy it). I'm in a similar situation this year since it is this is the first version where I own an X-box 360 during the release, but there seems to be a general buzz about it this year so my excitement is echoed by others.

What could be either a feature that becomes a game revolutionizer or something that if it is over-utilized could kill this years game is the "weapons" that star players possess. How cool will it be when your making a 4th quarter drive against a buddy when you launch a pass down the sidelines and while it is a little over-thrown, Chad Johnson snags it giving you the ultimate "Holy Shit" moment.

This is far from a perfect game though. There still aren't online leagues, something that is totally unacceptable for the most popular sports video game. Seriously, how hard is it to include this feature? 2K Sports has it for all of their games. I would play Madden 2008 probably a good 4 hours a week longer if I could compete against my friends in a Madden League. Or tack on another 4 hours if it could be an online Franchise mode. See EA thats 8 hours of extra game time from me where you could slap advertisements for Powerade, Nike, or whatever else in my face.

Also being able to design a Super Bowl Ring would be very cool if it was for a Super Bowl that I had just one in the game. It would be much better than the same canned celebration animation that anyone who has played a franchise mode in any game now knows all too well. But no, you instead design a ring for achievements fulfilled in the game, like 200-yards rushing in a single game.

When EA muscled 2K out of the NFL video game arena, they proceeded to acquire the ESPN license that their competitor once had. This made me giddy because the one thing that made me even think about switching allegiances was the fact that NFL 2K5 had an NFL-Live type highlight show. My hatred of the 2K play selection screens and inability to adapt to the game play was completely offset by this feature. So the thought of having my Franchise players showing up on a highlight film narrated by Chris Berman in Madden 2006 was overwhelming. Then it wasn't in 2006, and did not show up in 2007 either. So did EA include it in 2008? Nope. All the ESPN license only makes appearances online with downloadable highlights and ESPN radio segments.

Regardless of the shortcomings, I am still jacked for this release. I'm not going to camp out Monday night for a midnight release but I'm not above leaving work on Tuesday an hour or so early to get my copy. What? Its a legitimate excuse.

Links:

A video that gets the juices flowing
http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2007/07/18/madden-2008-opens-with-brian-dawkins/

A forum with a list of features and a place to say what else should be in the game
http://www.maddenboard.com/forum/madden-2008-wishlists/7603-madden-2008-features.html

A video showing all the player ratings in the game, its really hard to make out the numbers but for people who need their fix, this should do
http://nflguru.net/2007/complete-list-of-madden-2008-player-ratings/

Thoughts on 756

2007-08-08T17:34:00.000-07:00

On Tuesday August 7, 2007 Barry Bonds hit his record-breaking 756^th homerun and most of the country probably missed it. It happened sometime after midnight on the east coast and I know I was either asleep or reading “Liar’s Poker” and did not find out until early this morning. The game was broadcast live on ESPN2 but it was between two awful teams, the Giants and Nationals, and the live look-ins from Sportscenter and Baseball Tonight made it possible to see the homerun without actually having to watch the game. Even then fans would have to sit through the same stories and highlights several times, usually no problem for the 18-40 male demographic but in the east and central time zones this involved battling the urge to go to sleep. This really is somewhat of a shame because the image of Hank Aaron circling the bases after he hit 715 is one of the most memorable pieces of video in baseball’s history, 756 will probably be indistinguishable from many other Bonds’ homeruns.

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Once the record was broken, it immediately decreased the importance of 756, which is now just a number. 756 had been allowed to age like a wine over the last 31 seasons and become an important number to all baseball fans and players. Just as 715 does not mean much if anything to fans born after 1976 we are now in a transition period until Bonds retires and gives the game a new static mark to reach. The exciting prospect about this is whether it is by Barry Bonds playing for another couple of years or someone like Alex Rodriguez reaching it, the next great number might not be the all-time homerun record as much as it will be being the first to reach 800. However, if Rodriguez were to do this, he would need to exceed his career HR rate for the next couple of seasons or have the longevity to play into his 40’s.

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This morning on Mike & Mike, Bob Costas discussed the role Barry Bonds plays in the steroid scandal. Because of what he is accomplishing, Bonds has put himself in a position to be the face of the story. He is not at the center of baseball and thus any flaw of his, especially one that was a major story before this chase began, will be heavily scrutinized. Ken Camenitti was a big enough name to break the steroids story, but Bonds was the superstar name that carried it for the last 5 years. If the players involved with steroids were relegated to utility infielders, long relievers, and players toeing the line between the majors and minors, the story would have died off long ago because those players don’t make a lasting impact. The example Costas used this morning was if the President was involved in a scandal it is a bigger deal than if a congressman were involved in the exact same scandal because it’s the President. Because Barry Bonds has the most MVP awards of any American professional athlete and the legacy of being the son of a ballplayer and the godson of one of the all-time greats he is essentially at the top of the player spectrum and becoming the career homerun leader only adds to it.

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The way Bud Selig handled the homerun chase was very unprofessional. He treated the situation as if Bonds were a leper and any contact with him would contaminate Selig’s reputation as well. The only valid excuse for missing any of the games during the chase was to attend the Hall-of-Fame ceremony, other than that Selig could have conducted business the way thousands of business people do from the road, via laptops and Blackberries and had people who needed to meet with him go to the cities where he was currently stationed. Missing 756 because he needed to attend a meeting on the Mitchell investigation is a poor way of sending a message that he does not approve of Bonds breaking the record. Even in the statement issued after the game, Selig throws in a jab with his congratulations. "While the issues which have swirled around this record will continue to work themselves toward resolution," Selig said, "today is a day for congratulations on a truly remarkable achievement."

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On the other hand, Henry Aaron’s displayed class throughout the whole chase. While he did not attend the games, he said it was due to the fact that he is at an age where travel and the uncertainty knowing when the record would be broken would be hard for him. Despite beliefs from others that Aaron did not approve of what Bonds has done, he did not let this view be known in public. His message that was displayed on the video board after in the sixth inning was a sincere message of congratulations and I’m sure it touched Barry. "It is a great accomplishment which required skill, longevity and determination," Aaron said. "Throughout the past century, the home run has held a special place in baseball and I have been privileged to hold this record for 33 of those years. I move over now and offer my best wishes to Barry and his family on this historic achievement. My hope today, as it was on that April evening in 1974, is that the achievement of this record will inspire others to chase their own dreams." Even though Selig and Aaron are close friends and probably have the same opinion of the event, Aaron took the high road even though he, not Selig, was the one who lost something Tuesday night.

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When does ESPN come out with their TV-movie of the Bonds saga? This is a definite right? My guess is it is either around the time that he enters the Hall-of-Fame or a year or so after he retires.

Quinn contract has no impact on Russell

2007-08-07T15:33:00.000-07:00

Today Brady Quinn ended his 11 day holdout and agreed to a 5-year $20.2 million contract, with $7.75 million guaranteed. The main road block to a deal was incentives in the final two years of the deal that would escalate if Quinn ever became the Browns starter. These escalators would have put Quinn's salary outside of the pay slot for the 22nd pick in the draft.

Some believe that by ending his holdout Brady Quinn has put pressure on Jamarcus Russell to sign with the Raiders. However, because of the vastly different situations the two quarterbacks were in one's signing has no impact on the other player. Quinn had far less leverage with the Browns because he fell from being what some believed as a top-3 pick to number 22. The Browns even passed on him once in the draft and thus wasn't the top priority when it came to signing draft picks. Russell was the top pick in the Draft and rightfully expects to receive the largest contract for a rookie because each year the contracts increase and he plays the premier position in the NFL, QB.

Brady Quinn and the Browns also seemed to have more of an urgency in getting the contract dispute resolved. The Browns have labeled Quinn as their QB of the future and Quinn had expressed interest in reporting to camp, both of these meant that a compromise was close. Cleveland's other quarterbacks, Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson, are also not much more than stopgaps.

The Raiders and Russell are still far from close to a deal and are still arguing over the guaranteed money in the deal. Al Davis has also added fuel to the fire by signing Daunte Culpepper, a former Pro Bowl QB to keep the seat warm until Russell is ready to play. However, if Culpepper performs well he could be kept on as a starter a possibility that is much more likely than with Frye or Anderson in Cleveland.

"This could go to September, easily, with the way the Raiders have approached it," a source close to the team said. Apparently the main problem in the negotiations has been Oakland's refusal to give Russell a full "skill" guarantee and only are willing to give a full "injury" guarantee. A skill guarantee covers the full amount of a contract if his original team were to cut him, a highly unlikely scenario for a #1 overall pick (unless his name is Tim Couch). Since 1993, every player taken with the first pick of the NFL draft has received full skill and injury guarantees.

While Quinn's holdout was receiving the attention recently, Russell's has the potential to be a very ugly dispute. Between Russell's lofty demands, no matter how much it is his right to make those demands, and the arcane way that Al Davis runs the Raiders a long holdout is in the cards. Ultimately the driving force in completing the deal will be the media coverage exposing how Oakland is trying to screw Russell (push the money to the last years, the skill and injury guarantees) and then an embarrassed Davis will relent.

Links

http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2007/08/06/no-end-in-sight-for-jamarcus-russell-holdout-this-could-go-to

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/browns/2007-08-07-quinn-contract_N.htm

Don't underestimate Roy Williams

2007-08-05T17:23:00.000-07:00

This was posted by someone on Yahoo!'s Brandon Funston's Big Board.

Please don't disregard this as classic homer material: Calvin Johnson will be the No. 1 WR for Mike Martz before the year is out. And the No. 1 WR on next year's Big Board, especially in keeper leagues. I guarantee at least 1,200 yds and 10 TDs in his freshman season. I haven't been this excited about a rookie since Marshall Faulk or Randy Moss, both of whom led me to championships. No offense to Roy "The Legend" Williams, but Calvin will outplay him in every facet of the game before the season is done. After having seen almost every game Calvin has played over the last three years, more than half of them live, I can tell you there is no hype. He's the real deal. I've seen many excellent athletes in person (Michael Jordan, Mike Vick, Vince Carter, Steve Smith), and I'd put Calvin right alongside them. Think Torry Holt's work ethic and route running while No. 2 to Isaac Bruce on the Rams under Mike Martz. Add the freakish speed and hands of Randy Moss on the Vikes. Bake, then sprinkle on a few extra TDs. I'm serious. This guy has been triple-teamed for 2.5 years with a QB throwing so inaccurately he couldn't hit water if he was throwing from a boat. Calvin will make Kitna look like an aged Randall Cunningham. My only reservations are the Lions running game and O-line. Restrain yourself no longer. Move Calvin up the chart where he belongs. He's a monster. – Luke, Atlanta, GA

While I won't argue that Calvin Johnson will be a monster and will eventually overtake Roy Williams its not going to happen this year. Roy Williams is a Pro Bowl caliber WR and no matter how good a rookie is coming into the league its very unlikely that he will upend a great WR who has been playing in the NFL for 3 years already. And to refute Luke's comments that he is not just your average homer, when you need to start out a post with a comment that this is not your typical homer message and you mention that you've seen every game Calvin Johnson has played in a GT uniform, it usually means that your posting is classic homer material.

Fantasy Football. Whoooooo Hooooooo!

2007-08-05T08:31:00.000-07:00

August usually means hot humid days that make you stick to your car seats on the drive home from work, the impending dread of returning to school for every kid across the country, and fantasy football drafts (my league we actually began emailing picks back in July but thats because Keeper Leagues are like crack, I'll explain it later). In the last 5 years or so fantasy football has exploded and it seems like everybody and their grandmother has a team and everybody knows about the "sleepers" and "strategies" making them essentially overrated and useless. So what can you use to win your league? Most of the time its a combination of common sense and luck.

One of these strategies the 3rd year WR breakout-season belief. Proponents of this theory say it takes WR's two season to fully grasp NFL systems and point to the breakout campaigns of Hall of Famer Steve Largent or more recently Lee Evans. Yet there are numerous other WR's who didn't do anything let alone breakout in their 3rd season. Last year people who believed this theory got burned by Michael Clayton, Ernest Wilford, and Reggie Williams to name a few.

If you look at the numbers, I did but I'm too lazy to put them in a nice table for you all, you'll see that in a WR's 3rd season, they generally do improve a reasonable amount over their previous season but similar improvements also occur in years 2, 4, and 5. Year 2 WR's are actually show the most "breakout" improving their receptions by 51%, yardage by 64%, and touchdowns by 77%. From the data it appears that different skill levels of receivers take longer to fully integrate themselves into the NFL, as Calvin Johnson will probably become a star by his 2nd season and player taken later in the draft (i.e. Jericho Cotchery) will need to develop longer and thus his "breakout" will come in either years 3 or 4 or even 5. So those down on Ernest Wilford or Reggie Williams don't give up hope yet, they may be examples of the 4th or 5th year WR theory.

Another key aspect in the breakout potential of a WR is the team they play for. Its no secret that offensive systems and QB's play a huge role in the performance of WR's, but for some reason the 3rd year theory makes people ignore them. Michael Clayton was already in a shaky offensive before his starting QB went down for the season so its no surprise he didn't fulfill his promise with Bruce Gradkowski throwing to him. Jacksonville was a horrible passing team and Byron Leftwich has really digressed in people's eyes, and when he got hurt the ball went to David Gerrard and run-first QB, creating a perfect storm for disappointment for Wilford and Williams.

That being said, lets take a look at this years batch of 3rd year WR's.

Reggie Brown, PHI
Mark Clayton, BAL
Braylon Edwards, CLE
Devery Henderson, NO
Chris Henry, CIN
Vincent Jackson, SD
Brandon Jones, TEN
Matt Jones, JAX
Roscoe Parrish, BUF
Courtney Roby, TEN
Nate Washington, PIT
Roddy White, ATL
Mike Williams, OAK
Roydell Williams, TEN
Troy Williamson, MIN

Clearly the wheat can be separated from the chaff. Edwards, Clayton, Henderson, Brown, Jackson, Brandon Jones, and Matt Jones are much more likely candidates then the others. Chris Henry is going to miss half the season so is breakout opportunities are killed and Roby and Roydell Williams are going to be competing with the more talented Brandon Jones for catches in Tennessee. All we have to say about Troy Williamson is that Travaris Jackson will be under center in Minnesota and you don't have to include the fact that there are two top notch RB's that are going to be stealing carries to stay away from him.

Of the players who have a realistic shot of a breakout, Edwards has the most talent but he is limited by the lack of a quality QB. If Brady Quinn actually signs a contract (I'm a bitter Browns fan who thinks the 22nd pick should get paid like the 22nd pick not a top-3 pick) his learning curve would point to a breakout next season for Edwards. The Ravens are still a run-first team so Clayton will always have that hanging over him. Jacksonville's passing ability still hampers Matt Jones's possibility and he also has to share looks with Wilford and Williams, players who are equivalent to his skill.

That leaves Reggie Brown, Vincent Jackson, Devery Henderson, and Brandon Jones. One could argue that Devery Henderson had his breakout season in Year 2 since he went from fairly unknown to a legitimate name in the NFL and in fantasy circles. The same could be said about Reggie Brown who had good season last year and should improve a little bit with the departure of Donte Stallworth meaning more looks for Brown. So the list leaves 2 breakout possibilities out of the 15 we started with. Not that great of odds when I'm looking for production. If you want to follow the 3rd year WR breakout rule then your best bet is to select Vincent Jackson or Brandon Jones. If not one of those then take one of the already established talents of Reggie Brown or Devery Henderson who have already broken out to some extent.

The breakout pool also includes 2nd year players such as Greg Jennings, Santonio Holmes, and Brandon Marshall. All players who showed some big potential last year and have situations that are favorable for improvement. So instead of using some golden rule about a certain season a WR should breakout, use common sense and study what the player did last year and what is their team's situation this year. Also be the person who picks up this year's version of Marcus Colston, that will help you win.

YES 4 sale

2007-08-02T14:40:00.000-07:00

Fortune magazine reported that the Yankees are shopping their television network YES and could receive offers upwards of $3 Billion. All of this is fueling speculation that the Yankees team will soon be put on the auction block. Nevermind the fact that this will never happen while George Steinbrenner is still alive and that there are even conflicting reports within the organization that YES is even for sale, but since when does reorganization of a company mean that the whole business is for sale?

The most likely reason for this is that the Yankees are capitalizing on an opportunity to sell YES at what they see as the most profitable time. No one can deny that George Steinbrenner is not the same owner that he once was, most likely do to the fact that he is aging. The Boss might not be able to handle the added responsibility that the television station brings and his family might not want to deal with it either. Both are probable reasons that would have nothing to do with an impending sale of the franchise.

The money that would come in from the sale of YES would be larger than that of the team itself, leading some to believe that YES must be sold so the Yankees can remain in the Steinbrenner family. With the largest payroll in baseball, the future Yankee owner will need to have money readily available, and $3 Billion seems like it would do. Also, has any thought that maybe the Yankees have plans for something bigger and need the money right now? What if they were to make the Yankees a brand name, and have Yankee restaurants or Yankee hotels. Hal Steinbrenner, supposedly the next in line, runs the family's hotel business.

Whatever the reasoning, it shouldn't be taken as a sign that the Yankee franchise is up for sale. There are too many monumentous occasions on the horizon that George Steinbrenner would never miss, the 2008 All-Star Game, Opening the new Yankee Stadium, Closing the old Yankee Stadium, retiring Derek Jeter into monument park. This and the fact that the Yankees are the premier American sports franchise and can be a significant money making venture if run correctly, and that it will probably be The Boss's last wish that the team remain in the family, means the Steinbrenners will be a part of New York baseball for a while.

Links:

http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/01/news/companies/yes_sale.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007080206

http://gothamist.com/2007/08/02/report_yes_netw.php

Living on a Prayer

2007-07-31T20:10:00.000-07:00

Priest Holmes is reportedly going to attempt to play for the Kansas City Chiefs this season. I know this is not breaking any news but does anyone seriously believe Holmes will make a difference aside from putting a minute amount of pressure on current starter Larry Johnson to back down from his contract demands? Just under two years ago Holmes suffered an injury that looked like it not only would end his career but possibly alter his life as well. As everyone now knows, that injury opened the door to allow Johnson to become the star he is today and thus enter in the holdout his is in today. And why did the Chiefs draft Johnson in the first place back in 2003? Well at least part of the reason was to put pressure on Holmes to report, who was in a contract dispute of his own. So the Chiefs have come full circle when using former/future RB’s against each other’s desire to make money.

NFL soap operas aside, Holmes has a lot of factors working against his return. For one he turns 34 this October, an age that is usually into the twilight of RB careers. Secondly he has been out of football for the last 21 months, Rickey Williams was only out a year and his skills were diminished when he returned. Also the Chiefs Offensive line is not as strong as it was during Holmes’ prime putting added importance on quickness.

Despite all of these signs, some people still believe that he could return to being the same old Priest Holmes that 5,933 yards, the most in Kansas City history. They point to the rebound year he had in 2003 after having hip surgery where he score a then NFL record 27 touchdowns and rushed for 1,420 yards. That the time off could actually help revive Holmes’ skill since he was used so frequently while he was healthy.

While it would be nice to see Priest Holmes as an effective member of the NFL again the odds are against it. In a age where RB’s fizzle out in as little as 6 years, Holmes has become ancient. However, if he were to return to form and LJ forgoes his holdout....

I made a difference.... or at least i think i did

2007-07-24T20:12:00.001-07:00

The Tim Donaghy story led Sportscenter today and it is the top story on ESPN.com

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=sheridan_chris&id=2947549

A blog with no readers makes a difference.

Where is the outrage?

2007-07-22T14:10:00.000-07:00

Maybe the biggest sports story since the steroids controversy first unfolded has just occurred and its not leading Sportscenter. The Tim Donaghy story should be the lead on every news show sports or not, but for some reason it seems to be cast aside by Michael Vick. While another huge story, the Vick indictment really only affects Vick and to a lesser extent the Falcons. Tim Donaghy's mess affects a whole league that was just finally getting out of the cloud of the Artest melee. Vick's story as the involves a start player that even casual fans know well and the Pacers-Pistons-Fans fight of several years ago had the violence that attracts people out of human nature. Corrupt referees are nameless figures whose work goes unnoticed unless they fail, far from the portrait of a lead-story.

However Vick's indictment still precedes Donaghy's in news casts and sports pages. Conversations about the possibility with friends have been short and met with a kind of acceptance that it was bound to happen. Tim Donaghy's name should be burned into our minds with Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson as figures who did the unthinkable and altered the sanctity of sports by getting in bed with gamblers. But somehow Jackson and Rose will probably continue to get the stamp of villain while Donaghy will be forgotten. Rose was betting on his team because he was that competitive and thought he could win, Jackson surely didn't play like he was throwing the World Series, but Donaghy situation has no excuses. It brings into question if the game we are watching is a fair competition between two teams of top athletes or nothing more than a off-shoot of the WWE.

While lacking the big name or action that the we have come to accept sports stories that become national news, this one has the power to bring a major professional sport to its knees much like Ken Caminiti's steroid story in Sports Illustrated in 2002. Donaghy worked playoff games, including Game 3 of the Spurs-Suns series that feature several questionable calls. While there is no proof of wrong doing it that game yet, you would figure that if there were in any game, a big playoff game where betting would be increased, would figure to have the most potential for Donaghy to be leaned on by his debtees to make an impact in. So theoretically Tim Donaghy changed the outcome of the 2007 NBA Finals. A championship determined by gamblers, the last time that happened it was 1919 and the Black Sox scandal turned baseball on its head. However, with these circumstances David Stern cannot take the immediate action commissioner Kennisaw Mountain Landis could because the situation is still cloudy and even if Stern has Donaghy banished to Siberia the fans, players, and anyone else involved with the game of basketball will feel cheated.

Donaghy will reportedly work with the F.B.I. in their investigation into the gambling ring, but it won't do much to clear the damage he has done. If allegations that he affected the outcomes of NBA games are true the impact will be felt all over. The Spurs championship, no matter how much they proved they were the best team throughout the playoffs, will be tainted. The Suns will have a legitimate claim that they were screwed out of Game 3 and the series. That is two teams that no matter how hard they played will have to either look back at the what-ifs or unfairly have to prove their title was not handed to them.

Fellow referees will now face unheard of scrutiny and a guilty-until-proven-innocent stance from fans, players, and executives who feel they are being taken advantage of. Bad calls will now become scarlet letters for an association with undesirables. These are people who are underpaid and abused every night they go to work and now they will have to defend their integrity because of the foolish actions of someone else.

The NBA has faced a lot since the Jordan days, the Malice at the Palace, the lockout, the Jailblazers but it seemed that the league might be turning a corner. There was a batch of young, marketable stars and excitement about the past several drafts and developing rivalries. Now all of that seems irreverent because of one man. One man who if he does his job well is never noticed. Now Donaghy should be noticed, but the bulk of America doesn't seem to care.

Links:

NY Times story on the investigation - http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/21/sports/basketball/21referee.html?_r=1&ref=sports&oref=slogin

Bill Simmons's account of the ordeal. I don't agree with a lot of his statements on the disintegration of the NBA but he nails every point of this. The NBA was tailor made for something like this to happened with the number of bad calls that occur. Plus the game of basketball is more suited for a referee scandal than baseball or football because the action is so quick, continuous, and concentrated you cannot be 100% accurate in calls. Great article from a man who is very passionate about the NBA.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/070722

2007-07-22T13:48:00.000-07:00

Previous posts of this blog can be found at:
http://blog.360.yahoo.com/blog-eIUu9mwrfq3roTQiCVIzSA--?cq=1

Welcome to hossville

Making a case for Manny to the Reds

Deshawn Stevenson is a Punk Bitch!

The Ultimate Issue With Sports Video Games

A prolonged Cringe for the Queen City

Mid-Day College Football Rankings

LenDale White is FAT!!!!!

The Great Debate: A hit vs. a walk

Wait this is better.

So Many Things Are Wrong

Definition of Sleepers

Holy Pennant Races Batman!

3 days 'til Madden

Thoughts on 756

Quinn contract has no impact on Russell

Don't underestimate Roy Williams

Fantasy Football. Whoooooo Hooooooo!

YES 4 sale

Living on a Prayer

I made a difference.... or at least i think i did

Where is the outrage?

Previous Posts